Pre-registration: entry5m/docs/2026-09-07-entry5m-v9-indicator-exit-only-prereg.md at commit 5c845f2 (two cells, each judged on its own), committed before the code (e9a1d2b) and before this run. Code HEAD at run time: e9a1d2b. Base: v3 (research/2026-09-06-entry5m-v3-fixed3r-screen.md).
Primary cell (unmodified): v3's bias and stop, target_mode = "none" (no take-profit), no scale-out, exit_on_opp_tri = True; four symbols, same data windows as the v1 record.
Verdict (copied from the table below): FAIL overall: 0 of 3 groups (need 2) — group usd FAIL, group metal FAIL, group jpy FAIL.
This cell as specified is dead; no parameter search was run.
Per-symbol observations (funnel counters, as printed; no adjustments implied):
FAIL — n 436 (ok; v3 415), PF 0.99 / ex-outlier PF 0.87 (fail; v3 1.21 / 1.17), expectancy -0.008 R (fail), best month share n/a, net R negative (fail), halves 11.9 / -15.3 R (fail). Win rate 36.0% (v3 39.8%), net R -3.4 (v3 +53.9), max drawdown 52.1 R, 70 of 436 trades closed by the opposite-side triangle, average hold 136.6 bars.FAIL — n 419 (ok; v3 388), PF 1.18 / ex-outlier PF 0.93 (fail; v3 1.08 / 1.04), expectancy 0.119 R (ok), best month share 45.7% (fail), halves 66.8 / -16.8 R (fail). Win rate 32.9% (v3 35.1%), net R 49.9 (v3 +19.6), max drawdown 50.7 R, 82 of 419 trades closed by the opposite-side triangle, average hold 138.3 bars.FAIL — n 400 (ok; v3 356), PF 0.79 / ex-outlier PF 0.69 (fail; v3 0.89 / 0.85), expectancy -0.135 R (fail), best month share n/a, net R negative (fail), halves -24.0 / -29.9 R (fail). Win rate 34.0% (v3 34.3%), net R -53.9 (v3 -28.4), max drawdown 68.8 R, 96 of 400 trades closed by the opposite-side triangle, average hold 115.9 bars.FAIL — n 439 (ok; v3 406), PF 0.76 / ex-outlier PF 0.67 (fail; v3 0.92 / 0.89), expectancy -0.158 R (fail), best month share n/a, net R negative (fail), halves 7.0 / -76.2 R (fail). Win rate 31.4% (v3 33.0%), net R -69.2 (v3 -21.9), max drawdown 99.1 R, 85 of 439 trades closed by the opposite-side triangle, average hold 121.0 bars.Reading. Removing the 3R take-profit and letting the opposite-side triangle be the only profit exit lowered net R on EURUSD (+53.9 to −3.4 R), gold and EURJPY, and raised GBPUSD (+19.6 to +49.9 R, PF 1.18) — but GBPUSD's profit factor without its three best trades is 0.93 and its second half is −16.8 R, so the gain is three trades. The triangle closed 16-24% of trades; the rest ended at the stop or the bias end. Without a take-profit the average win in R rises, the win rate falls (32-36%), and drawdowns roughly double against v3. The 15m secondary run (2026-09-07-entry5m-v9a-opptri-only-screen-15m.md) fails 0 of 3.
The sensitivity block below is reported as required and is NOT judged.
symbol n win% netR expR PF exPF ddR month share% h1R h2R bars verdict
EURJPY 439 31.4 -69.2 -0.158 0.76 0.67 99.1 2022-04 - 7.0 -76.2 121.0 FAIL
EURUSD 436 36.0 -3.4 -0.008 0.99 0.87 52.1 2024-06 - 11.9 -15.3 136.6 FAIL
GBPUSD 419 32.9 49.9 0.119 1.18 0.93 50.7 2021-11 45.7 66.8 -16.8 138.3 FAIL
XAUUSD 400 34.0 -53.9 -0.135 0.79 0.69 68.8 2022-10 - -24.0 -29.9 115.9 FAIL
bias / pullback funnel:
EURJPY biases=172 biases_RDIV=162 biases_HDIV=10 biases_ARM=0 bias_end_target=84 bias_end_contradiction=35 bias_end_timeout=29 bias_end_replaced=24 bias_end_range_end=0 bias_no_target=0 pullbacks_too_short=2235 pullbacks_qualifying=6579 rr_rejected=948 already_broken=374 skipped_in_position=3681 orders_placed=1576 cancel_extreme_taken=721 cancel_expired=1 cancel_bias_end=5 cancel_replaced=410 filled=439 target_beyond_zero_touch=0 partial_exits=0 exit_opp_tri=85 exit_opp_div=0
EURUSD biases=235 biases_RDIV=225 biases_HDIV=10 biases_ARM=0 bias_end_target=120 bias_end_contradiction=50 bias_end_timeout=28 bias_end_replaced=37 bias_end_range_end=0 bias_no_target=0 pullbacks_too_short=2455 pullbacks_qualifying=7010 rr_rejected=1055 already_broken=358 skipped_in_position=4083 orders_placed=1514 cancel_extreme_taken=697 cancel_expired=1 cancel_bias_end=5 cancel_replaced=375 filled=436 target_beyond_zero_touch=0 partial_exits=0 exit_opp_tri=70 exit_opp_div=0
GBPUSD biases=185 biases_RDIV=179 biases_HDIV=6 biases_ARM=0 bias_end_target=87 bias_end_contradiction=35 bias_end_timeout=33 bias_end_replaced=30 bias_end_range_end=0 bias_no_target=0 pullbacks_too_short=2375 pullbacks_qualifying=6978 rr_rejected=1142 already_broken=328 skipped_in_position=4005 orders_placed=1503 cancel_extreme_taken=739 cancel_expired=2 cancel_bias_end=5 cancel_replaced=338 filled=419 target_beyond_zero_touch=0 partial_exits=0 exit_opp_tri=82 exit_opp_div=0
XAUUSD biases=171 biases_RDIV=167 biases_HDIV=4 biases_ARM=0 bias_end_target=83 bias_end_contradiction=35 bias_end_timeout=26 bias_end_replaced=27 bias_end_range_end=0 bias_no_target=0 pullbacks_too_short=2004 pullbacks_qualifying=6046 rr_rejected=1101 already_broken=307 skipped_in_position=3211 orders_placed=1427 cancel_extreme_taken=662 cancel_expired=0 cancel_bias_end=4 cancel_replaced=361 filled=400 target_beyond_zero_touch=0 partial_exits=0 exit_opp_tri=96 exit_opp_div=0
FAIL group usd (EURUSD, GBPUSD)
FAIL group metal (XAUUSD)
FAIL group jpy (EURJPY)
FAIL overall: 0 of 3 groups (need 2)
sensitivity (NOT judged): net R / PF / n per cell
cell EURJPY EURUSD GBPUSD XAUUSD
N=2 rr=1.0 -75.9 0.76 473 13.5 1.04 478 31.9 1.10 454 -111.9 0.65 445
N=2 rr=1.5 -75.9 0.76 473 13.5 1.04 478 31.9 1.10 454 -111.9 0.65 445
N=3 rr=1.0 -69.2 0.76 439 -3.4 0.99 436 49.9 1.18 419 -53.9 0.79 400
N=3 rr=1.5 -69.2 0.76 439 -3.4 0.99 436 49.9 1.18 419 -53.9 0.79 400
N=5 rr=1.0 -30.5 0.86 355 2.5 1.01 383 43.8 1.20 354 -40.9 0.82 358
N=5 rr=1.5 -30.5 0.86 355 2.5 1.01 383 43.8 1.20 354 -40.9 0.82 358