Pre-registration: entry5m/docs/2026-09-07-entry5m-v7-opptri-prereg.md at commit 937652c, committed before the code (1f8c09c) and before this run. Code HEAD at run time: 1f8c09c. Parent: v3 (research/2026-09-06-entry5m-v3-fixed3r-screen.md, FAIL 1/3 with EURUSD passing alone). Pivot rule: the corrected (Pine) tie rule of 2026-09-07; v3's reproduction under that rule is in 2026-09-07-pivot-tie-reproduction.md (numbers identical to the original for v3's judged fields).
Primary cell (unmodified): v3's cell plus exit_on_opp_tri = True (the trade is closed at the 5m bar close on which an H1 close shows an AVWAP-Z triangle at the Elevated tier or above on the side opposite to the trade; exits only, the bias and pending orders are untouched). Four symbols, same data windows as the v1 record.
Verdict (copied from the table below): FAIL overall: 0 of 3 groups (need 2) — group usd FAIL, group metal FAIL, group jpy FAIL.
The variant as specified is dead; no parameter search was run.
Per-symbol observations (funnel counters, as printed; no adjustments implied):
FAIL — n 471 (ok; v3 415), PF 1.12 / ex-outlier PF 1.09 (fail; v3 1.21 / 1.17), expectancy 0.069 R (ok; v3 +0.130), best month share 28.1% (ok), halves 32.4 / 0.0 R (ok; v3 +39.1 / +14.9). Win rate 41.6% (v3 39.8%), net R 32.4 (v3 +53.9), max drawdown 25.9 R, 59 of 471 trades closed by an opposite-side H1 triangle (13%), average hold 122.9 bars.FAIL — n 456 (ok; v3 388), PF 1.04 / ex-outlier PF 1.01 (fail; v3 1.08 / 1.04), expectancy 0.024 R (fail; v3 +0.051), best month share 56.2% (fail), halves 16.4 / -5.4 R (fail; v3 +19.3 / +0.4). Win rate 39.5% (v3 35.1%), net R 11.0 (v3 +19.6), max drawdown 27.2 R, 75 of 456 trades closed by an opposite-side H1 triangle (16%), average hold 123.7 bars.FAIL — n 427 (ok; v3 356), PF 0.89 / ex-outlier PF 0.85 (fail; v3 0.89 / 0.85), expectancy -0.065 R (fail; v3 -0.080), best month share n/a, net R negative (fail), halves 1.8 / -29.4 R (fail; v3 +1.5 / -29.9). Win rate 38.6% (v3 34.3%), net R -27.6 (v3 -28.4), max drawdown 43.3 R, 85 of 427 trades closed by an opposite-side H1 triangle (20%), average hold 106.0 bars.FAIL — n 472 (ok; v3 406), PF 0.90 / ex-outlier PF 0.87 (fail; v3 0.92 / 0.89), expectancy -0.062 R (fail; v3 -0.054), best month share n/a, net R negative (fail), halves 23.4 / -52.5 R (fail; v3 +22.0 / -43.8). Win rate 37.5% (v3 33.0%), net R -29.1 (v3 -21.9), max drawdown 66.1 R, 78 of 472 trades closed by an opposite-side H1 triangle (17%), average hold 109.5 bars.Reading against v3 (same bias, stop and 3R target, no triangle exit). The opposite-side triangle closed 13-20% of trades. On every symbol it raised the trade count (positions freed earlier) and the win rate, and on every symbol it lowered net R: EURUSD from +53.9 to +32.4 R (PF 1.21 to 1.12; the second half of the data went from +14.9 to 0.0 R), GBPUSD from +19.6 to +11.0 R; gold and EURJPY stayed negative. The triangle fires while the trade is still short of 3R often enough that the R given up on the runners outweighs what it saves on the trades that would have reversed. The 15m secondary run (2026-09-07-entry5m-v7-opptri-screen-15m.md) fails 0 of 3.
The sensitivity block below is reported as required and is NOT judged (min_rr does not bind under a fixed target).
symbol n win% netR expR PF exPF ddR month share% h1R h2R bars verdict
EURJPY 472 37.5 -29.1 -0.062 0.90 0.87 66.1 2022-11 - 23.4 -52.5 109.5 FAIL
EURUSD 471 41.6 32.4 0.069 1.12 1.09 25.9 2024-06 28.1 32.4 0.0 122.9 FAIL
GBPUSD 456 39.5 11.0 0.024 1.04 1.01 27.2 2025-06 56.2 16.4 -5.4 123.7 FAIL
XAUUSD 427 38.6 -27.6 -0.065 0.89 0.85 43.3 2022-10 - 1.8 -29.4 106.0 FAIL
bias / pullback funnel:
EURJPY biases=172 biases_RDIV=162 biases_HDIV=10 biases_ARM=0 bias_end_target=84 bias_end_contradiction=35 bias_end_timeout=29 bias_end_replaced=24 bias_end_range_end=0 bias_no_target=0 pullbacks_too_short=2235 pullbacks_qualifying=6579 rr_rejected=948 already_broken=400 skipped_in_position=3579 orders_placed=1652 cancel_extreme_taken=726 cancel_expired=1 cancel_bias_end=5 cancel_replaced=448 filled=472 target_beyond_zero_touch=691 partial_exits=0 exit_opp_tri=78
EURUSD biases=235 biases_RDIV=225 biases_HDIV=10 biases_ARM=0 bias_end_target=120 bias_end_contradiction=50 bias_end_timeout=28 bias_end_replaced=37 bias_end_range_end=0 bias_no_target=0 pullbacks_too_short=2455 pullbacks_qualifying=7010 rr_rejected=1055 already_broken=391 skipped_in_position=3969 orders_placed=1595 cancel_extreme_taken=699 cancel_expired=2 cancel_bias_end=5 cancel_replaced=418 filled=471 target_beyond_zero_touch=669 partial_exits=0 exit_opp_tri=59
GBPUSD biases=185 biases_RDIV=179 biases_HDIV=6 biases_ARM=0 bias_end_target=87 bias_end_contradiction=35 bias_end_timeout=33 bias_end_replaced=30 bias_end_range_end=0 bias_no_target=0 pullbacks_too_short=2375 pullbacks_qualifying=6978 rr_rejected=1142 already_broken=356 skipped_in_position=3892 orders_placed=1588 cancel_extreme_taken=743 cancel_expired=2 cancel_bias_end=6 cancel_replaced=381 filled=456 target_beyond_zero_touch=652 partial_exits=0 exit_opp_tri=75
XAUUSD biases=171 biases_RDIV=167 biases_HDIV=4 biases_ARM=0 bias_end_target=83 bias_end_contradiction=35 bias_end_timeout=26 bias_end_replaced=27 bias_end_range_end=0 bias_no_target=0 pullbacks_too_short=2004 pullbacks_qualifying=6046 rr_rejected=1101 already_broken=321 skipped_in_position=3144 orders_placed=1480 cancel_extreme_taken=665 cancel_expired=0 cancel_bias_end=4 cancel_replaced=384 filled=427 target_beyond_zero_touch=611 partial_exits=0 exit_opp_tri=85
FAIL group usd (EURUSD, GBPUSD)
FAIL group metal (XAUUSD)
FAIL group jpy (EURJPY)
FAIL overall: 0 of 3 groups (need 2)
sensitivity (NOT judged): net R / PF / n per cell
cell EURJPY EURUSD GBPUSD XAUUSD
N=2 rr=1.0 -47.3 0.85 509 9.5 1.03 520 -11.7 0.96 500 -68.2 0.78 477
N=2 rr=1.5 -47.3 0.85 509 9.5 1.03 520 -11.7 0.96 500 -68.2 0.78 477
N=3 rr=1.0 -29.1 0.90 472 32.4 1.12 471 11.0 1.04 456 -27.6 0.89 427
N=3 rr=1.5 -29.1 0.90 472 32.4 1.12 471 11.0 1.04 456 -27.6 0.89 427
N=5 rr=1.0 7.2 1.03 374 19.3 1.08 409 17.2 1.08 378 -30.5 0.86 373
N=5 rr=1.5 7.2 1.03 374 19.3 1.08 409 17.2 1.08 378 -30.5 0.86 373