Pre-registration: entry5m/docs/2026-09-07-entry5m-v10-h4-bias-prereg.md at commit 4cdbc60, committed before the code (6801451, screen flags only) and before this run. Code HEAD at run time: 6801451. Parent: v3 (research/2026-09-06-entry5m-v3-fixed3r-screen.md, H1 bias, FAIL 1/3 with EURUSD passing alone).
Primary cell (unmodified): v3's cell with htf = "4h", htf_offset_s = 3600, timeout_h1 = 96 bias-timeframe bars; four symbols, same data windows as the v1 record (the first ~333 trading days of each are ZTD warm-up on H4, as pre-registered).
Verdict (copied from the table below): FAIL overall: 0 of 3 groups (need 2) — group usd FAIL, group metal FAIL, group jpy FAIL.
The variant as specified is dead; no parameter search was run.
Per-symbol observations (funnel counters, as printed; no adjustments implied):
FAIL — 39 H4 biases (v3 on H1: 235), ended at target 22, contradiction 5, timeout 5, replaced 7; 641 orders, 168 filled, 119 with the 3R target beyond the zero-touch level. n 168 (fail; v3 415), PF 0.93 / ex-outlier PF 0.86 (fail; v3 1.21), expectancy -0.051 R (fail), best month share n/a, net R negative (fail), halves -15.4 / 6.9 R (fail). Win rate 31.0%, net R -8.6 (v3 +53.9), max drawdown 27.4 R, average hold 326.0 bars.FAIL — 45 H4 biases (v3 on H1: 185), ended at target 22, contradiction 8, timeout 9, replaced 6; 792 orders, 207 filled, 177 with the 3R target beyond the zero-touch level. n 207 (ok; v3 388), PF 0.92 / ex-outlier PF 0.86 (fail; v3 1.08), expectancy -0.060 R (fail), best month share n/a, net R negative (fail), halves -9.7 / -2.6 R (fail). Win rate 28.0%, net R -12.3 (v3 +19.6), max drawdown 30.4 R, average hold 252.4 bars.FAIL — 37 H4 biases (v3 on H1: 171), ended at target 18, contradiction 8, timeout 5, replaced 6; 666 orders, 172 filled, 131 with the 3R target beyond the zero-touch level. n 172 (fail; v3 356), PF 0.83 / ex-outlier PF 0.77 (fail; v3 0.89), expectancy -0.128 R (fail), best month share n/a, net R negative (fail), halves -18.4 / -3.7 R (fail). Win rate 29.1%, net R -22.0 (v3 -28.4), max drawdown 23.4 R, average hold 314.3 bars.FAIL — 35 H4 biases (v3 on H1: 172), ended at target 12, contradiction 9, timeout 6, replaced 7; 699 orders, 193 filled, 99 with the 3R target beyond the zero-touch level. n 192 (fail; v3 406), PF 0.85 / ex-outlier PF 0.79 (fail; v3 0.92), expectancy -0.113 R (fail), best month share n/a, net R negative (fail), halves 1.8 / -23.5 R (fail). Win rate 25.5%, net R -21.8 (v3 -21.9), max drawdown 27.2 R, average hold 267.4 bars.Reading against v3 (H1 bias). The H4 bias fires about a fifth as often (35-45 biases per symbol, almost all regular divergences), which with the warm-up leaves 168-207 trades in five years — under the 200-trade floor on three symbols. Every symbol is net-negative (−8.6 to −22.0 R) with profit factors 0.83-0.93; EURUSD, the only symbol that ever passed on H1, loses on H4 with a negative first half. Holds are two to three times longer (252-326 bars). The wider H4 stops did not buy a higher win rate (25-31%). The 15m secondary run (2026-09-07-entry5m-v10-h4bias-screen-15m.md): 106-120 trades per symbol, EURUSD +13.0 R PF 1.18 on 114 trades, the other three negative; FAIL 0 of 3.
The sensitivity block below is reported as required and is NOT judged.
symbol n win% netR expR PF exPF ddR month share% h1R h2R bars verdict
EURJPY 192 25.5 -21.8 -0.113 0.85 0.79 27.2 2023-01 - 1.8 -23.5 267.4 FAIL
EURUSD 168 31.0 -8.6 -0.051 0.93 0.86 27.4 2023-06 - -15.4 6.9 326.0 FAIL
GBPUSD 207 28.0 -12.3 -0.060 0.92 0.86 30.4 2023-07 - -9.7 -2.6 252.4 FAIL
XAUUSD 172 29.1 -22.0 -0.128 0.83 0.77 23.4 2023-03 - -18.4 -3.7 314.3 FAIL
bias / pullback funnel:
EURJPY biases=35 biases_RDIV=35 biases_HDIV=0 biases_ARM=0 bias_end_target=12 bias_end_contradiction=9 bias_end_timeout=6 bias_end_replaced=7 bias_end_range_end=0 bias_no_target=0 pullbacks_too_short=1736 pullbacks_qualifying=5410 rr_rejected=797 already_broken=160 skipped_in_position=3754 orders_placed=699 cancel_extreme_taken=353 cancel_expired=0 cancel_bias_end=0 cancel_replaced=153 filled=193 target_beyond_zero_touch=99 partial_exits=0 exit_opp_tri=0 exit_opp_div=0
EURUSD biases=39 biases_RDIV=39 biases_HDIV=0 biases_ARM=0 bias_end_target=22 bias_end_contradiction=5 bias_end_timeout=5 bias_end_replaced=7 bias_end_range_end=0 bias_no_target=0 pullbacks_too_short=1720 pullbacks_qualifying=5416 rr_rejected=665 already_broken=156 skipped_in_position=3954 orders_placed=641 cancel_extreme_taken=325 cancel_expired=0 cancel_bias_end=0 cancel_replaced=148 filled=168 target_beyond_zero_touch=119 partial_exits=0 exit_opp_tri=0 exit_opp_div=0
GBPUSD biases=45 biases_RDIV=44 biases_HDIV=1 biases_ARM=0 bias_end_target=22 bias_end_contradiction=8 bias_end_timeout=9 bias_end_replaced=6 bias_end_range_end=0 bias_no_target=0 pullbacks_too_short=2163 pullbacks_qualifying=6269 rr_rejected=1700 already_broken=150 skipped_in_position=3627 orders_placed=792 cancel_extreme_taken=401 cancel_expired=0 cancel_bias_end=0 cancel_replaced=184 filled=207 target_beyond_zero_touch=177 partial_exits=0 exit_opp_tri=0 exit_opp_div=0
XAUUSD biases=37 biases_RDIV=36 biases_HDIV=1 biases_ARM=0 bias_end_target=18 bias_end_contradiction=8 bias_end_timeout=5 bias_end_replaced=6 bias_end_range_end=0 bias_no_target=0 pullbacks_too_short=1624 pullbacks_qualifying=4859 rr_rejected=264 already_broken=162 skipped_in_position=3767 orders_placed=666 cancel_extreme_taken=302 cancel_expired=0 cancel_bias_end=1 cancel_replaced=191 filled=172 target_beyond_zero_touch=131 partial_exits=0 exit_opp_tri=0 exit_opp_div=0
FAIL group usd (EURUSD, GBPUSD)
FAIL group metal (XAUUSD)
FAIL group jpy (EURJPY)
FAIL overall: 0 of 3 groups (need 2)
sensitivity (NOT judged): net R / PF / n per cell
cell EURJPY EURUSD GBPUSD XAUUSD
N=2 rr=1.0 -19.9 0.87 205 0.5 1.00 174 -2.2 0.99 219 -10.3 0.93 197
N=2 rr=1.5 -19.9 0.87 205 0.5 1.00 174 -2.2 0.99 219 -10.3 0.93 197
N=3 rr=1.0 -21.8 0.85 192 -8.6 0.93 168 -12.3 0.92 207 -22.0 0.83 172
N=3 rr=1.5 -21.8 0.85 192 -8.6 0.93 168 -12.3 0.92 207 -22.0 0.83 172
N=5 rr=1.0 -17.5 0.86 165 6.3 1.07 136 4.2 1.03 171 -9.2 0.92 153
N=5 rr=1.5 -17.5 0.86 165 6.3 1.07 136 4.2 1.03 171 -9.2 0.92 153