CAT researchOverviewEURUSDGBPUSDXAUUSDGBPCADEURCADAUDJPYGBPJPYResearch notes

entry5m v10 (H4 bias) — diagnostic: 1R / 0.5R targets and the MFE distribution (NOT judged)

Declared as a diagnostic in the v10 pre-registration addendum (2026-09-07). Same cell as the judged v10 run (htf 4h, offset 3600, H1-extreme stop, no scale-out, four symbols, five-year Tickstory 5m data); only target_r varies (for the 0.5R cell the reward-to-risk floor min_rr is lowered to 0.5, otherwise the floor of 1.0 rejects every order; nothing else changes). The MFE table reads the judged 3R-target run's trades: the share whose best excursion before the exit reached each R level, i.e. how often the entry "gave some minimum profit" regardless of where the exit rule finally closed it.

Targets at 3R (the judged cell), 1R and 0.5R

Symbol target R n win % net R PF ex-outlier PF expectancy R halves (R)
EURUSD 3.0 168 31.0 -8.6 0.93 0.86 -0.051 -15.4 / 6.9
EURUSD 1.0 217 51.2 -13.6 0.88 0.85 -0.063 -13.1 / -0.5
EURUSD 0.5 290 66.6 -12.8 0.88 0.86 -0.044 -7.3 / -5.5
GBPUSD 3.0 207 28.0 -12.3 0.92 0.86 -0.060 -9.7 / -2.6
GBPUSD 1.0 266 52.3 -3.1 0.98 0.95 -0.012 -5.2 / 2.0
GBPUSD 0.5 349 68.8 2.8 1.03 1.01 0.008 -2.9 / 5.7
XAUUSD 3.0 172 29.1 -22.0 0.83 0.77 -0.128 -18.4 / -3.7
XAUUSD 1.0 226 50.0 -17.1 0.86 0.83 -0.076 -11.2 / -5.9
XAUUSD 0.5 281 63.0 -27.5 0.75 0.74 -0.098 -15.8 / -11.8
EURJPY 3.0 192 25.5 -21.8 0.85 0.79 -0.113 1.8 / -23.5
EURJPY 1.0 246 45.9 -26.3 0.80 0.78 -0.107 -3.4 / -22.9
EURJPY 0.5 313 62.9 -20.2 0.82 0.81 -0.065 -2.0 / -18.2

MFE / MAE of the 3R-target trades

Symbol n MFE >= 0.25R >= 0.5R >= 1R >= 2R >= 3R median MFE R median MAE R stopped (n) median MFE of stopped
EURUSD 168 76% 65% 48% 30% 19% 0.98 1.05 113 0.56
GBPUSD 207 79% 64% 47% 29% 18% 0.89 1.05 146 0.60
XAUUSD 172 78% 63% 45% 26% 16% 0.80 1.09 121 0.60
EURJPY 192 80% 63% 42% 26% 18% 0.80 1.06 139 0.51

Reading (observations only)

  • The entries do reach a minimum profit most of the time, and it does not help. About 63-65% of the H4 trades run at least 0.5R in the trader's favour before their exit and 42-48% reach 1R, yet the median maximum adverse excursion is about 1.05R on every symbol — the typical trade goes a full risk unit against the entry at some point. Even the trades that end at the stop reached a median of 0.5-0.6R first. The favourable excursion is real but it is not larger than the adverse one.
  • Nearer targets convert that excursion into more winners, not into profit. At 1R the win rate rises to 46-52% and at 0.5R to 63-69%, but net R stays negative on three symbols and near zero on GBPUSD (+2.8 R at 0.5R, PF 1.03): with a 0.5R target a trade must win two of three times just to break even against the full-R losers, and it does not.
  • Trade counts rise with nearer targets (positions free up sooner), which is why the 0.5R rows have 280-350 trades against 168-207 at 3R.

Nothing in this read is judged; the v10 verdict stands (FAIL 0/3).